Why include referrals in CLV?
Because they're the bulk of the value. The BIA/Kelsey survey showed happy service-business customers refer 2.4 people on average. Forgetting referrals undervalues every customer by roughly 70%.
First-job revenue is the smallest part. Add repeat visits, referrals, and reviews — see why missing a single new-customer call costs more than you think.
What you bill on the initial visit.
Plumbing/HVAC averages 3-6; landscaping 12-20; pest 12-30.
Usually 50-70% of first-job value.
BIA/Kelsey: average happy customer refers 2.4 people.
Even one missed call exceeds RingDesk's monthly fee in 5-year terms.
The chart updates with every input you change. Left side is the leak you have today. Right side is the same shape damped to the 95% pickup rate RingDesk hits in production.
Direct CLV = first job + (repeat visits × repeat value).
Referral revenue = referrals × 35% close rate × first-job value.
True CLV = direct + referral (we don't include review SEO halo since it's hard to attribute).
Repeat horizon assumed 5 years — adjust mentally if your trade has shorter or longer cycles.
Because they're the bulk of the value. The BIA/Kelsey survey showed happy service-business customers refer 2.4 people on average. Forgetting referrals undervalues every customer by roughly 70%.
Yes — it's a useful planning horizon for service businesses. HVAC/plumbing customers stay 7-12 years; one-off remodelers might only repeat once. Adjust 'repeat visits' to your trade.
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